In the final week of the campaign, we will be posting updates to the projection for the 2013 BC provincial election, until our final one. These updates will only contain projected seats , popular vote and seats that have changed since previous projection.
All the seat changes are BC Liberal gains from the BC NDP, except for Cariboo North which is a BC Liberal gain from and Independent.
Cariboo North (IND->BCL)
Kamloops-North Thompson (BCNDP->BCL)
Prince George-Mackenzie (BCNDP->BCL)]
Abbottsford West (BCNDP->BCL)
North Vancouver-Lonsdale (BCNDP->BCL)
Changes from previous projections:
Time Penalty increased from 0.013 to 0.025, to reflect the voter volatility in the last week and in hopes of capturing any surge like in the 2011 Federal Election or the recent Alberta Provincial Election.
The fact that the BC Conservative Party is running less then a full slate of candidates has reduced their chances. Boundary- Similkameen was there best chance at actually winning a seat, not just a chance to place or show.
These are the constituencies that offer the best chance at a strong performance for the BC Conservative Party.
Chilliwack-Hope: 24.9% (2nd Place)
Chilliwack: 22.1% (3rd Place)
Stikine: 18.7% (2nd Place)
Only two of these seats are over the 20% threshold, we decided to include Stikine as third possibility because it was close to the threshold.
There has been a noticeable surge in the BC Green results in recent polling, especially on Vancouver Island. Here we take a quick look at the constituencies the BC Green Party can have a strong showing in BC Election 2013.
Victoria-Beacon Hill: 29.2% (2nd Place)
Esquimalt-Royal Roads: 27.3% (2nd Place)
Saanich North and the Islands: 23.1% (3rd Place)
Oak Bay-Gordon Head: 22.5% (3rd Place)
Victoria-Swan Lake: 22.4% (2nd Place)
Comox Valley: 20.8% (2nd Place)
West Vancouver-Sea to Sky: 23.1% (3rd Place)
Vernon-Monashee: 20.4% (3rd Place)
These are all the constituencies that the BC Green Party are projected to be over 20% of the votes cast. In none of them are they within 5% of the leaders projected total.
Our projector says the BC Green’s have certainly gained some momentum but are still a long way from electing an MLA on election day.