Update: OraclePoll Research Poll #bcelxn13

In the final week of the campaign, we will be posting updates to the projection for the 2013 BC provincial election, until our final one. These updates will only contain projected seats , popular vote and seats that have changed since previous projection.

All the seat changes are BC Liberal gains from the BC NDP, except for Cariboo North which is a BC Liberal gain from and Independent.

Cariboo North (IND->BCL)

Kamloops-North Thompson (BCNDP->BCL)

Prince George-Mackenzie (BCNDP->BCL)]

Vernon-Monashee (BCNDP->BCL)

Abbottsford West (BCNDP->BCL)

North Vancouver-Lonsdale (BCNDP->BCL)

Changes from previous projections:

Time Penalty increased from 0.013 to 0.025, to reflect the voter volatility in the  last week and in hopes of capturing any surge like in the 2011 Federal Election or the recent Alberta Provincial Election.


@ElectBCCP best possible showings in #bcelxn13

The fact that the BC Conservative Party is running less then a full slate of candidates has reduced their chances. Boundary- Similkameen was there best chance at actually winning a seat, not just a chance to place or show.

These are the constituencies that offer the best chance at a strong performance for the BC Conservative Party.

Chilliwack-Hope: 24.9% (2nd Place)

Chilliwack: 22.1% (3rd Place)

Stikine: 18.7% (2nd Place)

Only two of these seats are over the 20% threshold, we decided to include Stikine as third possibility because it was close to the threshold.